Data & downloads
Every chart-series ships as CSV, XLSX, and Parquet (no JSON, per the Heterodata download standard). Each value traces to a real BLS / BEA / Federal-Reserve source; nothing is fabricated. The interpretation-labeled heterodox series are a real-competition reading of the official data — see Methodology for how the constructed series are built.
Download all data (.zip) 16 chart-series · CSV + XLSX + Parquet + metadata
Inflation
CPI vs PCE — headline & core (YoY)
The two official price gauges, headline and core, year-over-year. CPI runs hotter than PCE by construction (weights, scope); the wedge is shown so the disinflation is read off both measures, not one.
- Units percent, year-over-year
- Rows 941
- Source BLS CPI-U (CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL); BEA PCE (PCEPI, PCEPILFE)
Robust-core band — median & trimmed-mean
Robust-core measures strip the noisiest components each month (median, trimmed mean) to show the central tendency of inflation, compared against conventional core CPI.
- Units percent, year-over-year
- Rows 821
- Source Cleveland Fed Median CPI (MEDCPIM158SFRBCLE); Dallas Fed Trimmed-mean PCE (PCETRIM12M159SFRBDAL); Cleveland Fed 16% trimmed-mean CPI (TRMMEANCPIM158SFRBCLE); BLS Core CPI
Inflation component contributions to headline CPI
Each CPI major expenditure group's approximate weighted contribution to headline year-over-year CPI, separating the 2021-2022 energy/food impulse from the stickier housing/services core. Contribution = component YoY x fixed expenditure weight.
- Units percentage points (approximate contribution to headline CPI YoY)
- Rows 797
- Source BLS CPI-U major expenditure-group indices (CPIENGSL, CPIFABSL, CPIHOSSL, CPIMEDSL, CPITRNSL, CPIAPPSL, CPIRECSL)
- Note Component contributions are recomputed through 2026 from the seasonally-adjusted component indices (the packaged contribution columns stopped at 2003), using approximate fixed 2024-basis CPI weights; contributions are approximate and do not force-sum exactly to headline.
Supercore (services less shelter) vs core
Supercore — core services excluding shelter — is the Fed's preferred read on underlying services inflation. The 3-month annualized rate leads the year-over-year turn.
- Units percent (YoY and 3-month annualized)
- Rows 821
- Source BLS CPI services less shelter (CUSR0000SASLE); BLS Core CPI (CPILFESL)
Shelter lead-lag — market proxy vs CPI shelter
Market housing costs lead the official CPI shelter measures (OER, primary rent) by roughly a year because of lease renewal lags. The proxy here is the Case-Shiller market index.
- Units percent, year-over-year
- Rows 869
- Source S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home-price index (market-rent proxy); BLS CPI Owners' Equivalent Rent (CUSR0000SEHC); BLS CPI Rent of primary residence (CUSR0000SEHA)
- Note BLS New Tenant Rent series not sourced in this build; the labeled Case-Shiller market-price proxy stands in for the market-rent lead. Flag for re-source in a later refresh.
Labor market
Labor-health trio — unemployment, prime-age LFPR, EPOP
Three complementary labor-market gauges. Prime-age participation and the employment-population ratio measure the extensive margin that the headline unemployment rate misses.
- Units percent
- Rows 941
- Source BLS CPS Unemployment rate (UNRATE); BLS CPS Prime-age labor-force participation (LNS11300060); BLS CPS Employment-population ratio (EMRATIO)
Payrolls vs a stated-assumption breakeven band
The 3-month average monthly payroll gain against a breakeven range — the pace needed to hold the unemployment rate steady. The band is a STATED ASSUMPTION (70k-110k/month) shown as bounds, not a point estimate, because the breakeven depends on the unknown immigration path.
- Units thousands of jobs per month
- Rows 137
- Source BLS CES Total nonfarm payrolls (PAYEMS)
- Note Breakeven band is an explicit modeling assumption (immigration-dependent), shown as a range; only the payrolls line is observed data.
Beveridge curve — job-openings rate vs unemployment rate
The Beveridge curve traces vacancies against unemployment over time. The 2021-2023 outward shift and the subsequent move down the curve are the 'low-hire/low-fire' normalization — a soft-landing signature. Plot openings_rate (y) against unemployment_rate (x), time-ordered.
- Units percent (both axes); time-pathed monthly
- Rows 297
- Source BLS JOLTS Job openings rate (JTSJOR, via FRED); BLS CPS Unemployment rate (UNRATE)
- Note The job-openings rate (BLS/FRED series JTSJOR) is sourced directly from FRED, retrieved 2025-12-07; monthly, 2000-12 to 2025-08.
JOLTS flows — hires, quits, layoffs, V/U
The labor-market flow rates. The quits rate is the workers' confidence signal; the V/U ratio is the canonical tightness gauge that peaked near 2.0 in 2022 and has since normalized.
- Units percent (rates); ratio (V/U)
- Rows 305
- Source BLS JOLTS (JTSHIR, JTSQUR, JTSLDR); Derived V/U ratio (openings / unemployed)
Real average hourly earnings (YoY)
Average hourly earnings deflated by CPI. Real earnings went negative through the 2021-2022 inflation surge and recovered as disinflation outpaced nominal wage growth.
- Units percent, year-over-year
- Rows 231
- Source BLS CES Average hourly earnings (CES0500000003) deflated by CPI-U
Heterodox lens
Unit labor costs vs productivity vs real compensation heterodox lens
The soft-landing ULC mechanism: when productivity rises faster than compensation, unit labor costs (and the cost-push on prices) ease. Read as the distributive split between labor and capital rather than as a Phillips-curve trade-off.
- Units index, 2017 = 100 (nonfarm business)
- Rows 317
- Source BLS Productivity Output-per-hour (OPHNFB); BLS Unit labor costs (ULCNFB); BLS Real hourly compensation (COMPRNFB)
Labor share of income — distributive conflict over time heterodox lens
The labor share — the wage bill as a fraction of output. Its secular decline and cyclical movement against the profit share is the classical reading of distributive conflict.
- Units index 2017=100 (BLS); percent of gross value added (BEA)
- Rows 97
- Source BLS Nonfarm-business labor share (PRS85006173); BEA NIPA Table 1.14 corporate labor share
Corporate profit share / markup proxy vs inflation heterodox lens
The markups-vs-ULC 'split verdict': whether the price level moved with the profit share/markup or with unit labor costs. The 2021-2022 profit-share spike is the empirical core of the debate.
- Units percent (profit share); percent annual-average (CPI)
- Rows 78
- Source BEA NIPA Table 1.14 nonfinancial corporate profits / gross value added; BLS CPI-U (annual average)
Economy-wide profit rate — the real-competition regulator heterodox lens
Shaikh's regulating variable: corporate profits over the net capital stock. In real-competition theory the profit rate, not a stable NAIRU, governs accumulation and the long-run dynamics of wages and prices.
- Units percent (corporate profits / private net capital stock)
- Rows 78
- Source BEA NIPA Table 1.14 corporate profits; BEA Fixed Assets Table 3.1ESI private net capital stock
Productive vs unproductive labor employment (Shaikh-Tonak) heterodox lens
The classical productive/unproductive split applied to CES industry employment. The secular rise of unproductive labor is the structural backdrop to wage-price dynamics.
- Units percent of total nonfarm payroll employment
- Rows 62
- Source Shaikh-Tonak classification applied to BLS CES industry employment, 1964-present (constructed)
- Note CONSTRUCTED classification, not an official BLS series. The Shaikh-Tonak mapping over modern CES is documented in the methodology; treat as an interpretive aggregate.
Structural
Sectoral employment shares over time
The structural reallocation of US employment — manufacturing and goods decline, services rise — as shares of total nonfarm payrolls. This is the backdrop to the productive/unproductive split and to wage-price dynamics.
- Units percent of total nonfarm payroll employment
- Rows 953
- Source BLS CES sector employment (USGOOD, MANEMP, USEHS, USPBS, USLAH); BLS CES total private (USPRIV); BLS CES total nonfarm (PAYEMS)
- Note Gap 3 closed: service-providing (private) derived as USPRIV - USGOOD.